NJ - Bad, but not as bad as others

Update - According to a Freddie Mac report released today (see graph below), the first quarter housing prices in New Jersey declined 5.7%. This would support the Zillow report and contradict the NAR report that New Jersey is doing better than most states. However looking at the wording by the NAR - the median home price might have been up but the year-over-year prices mean home prices could have still declined.



While things are not great in New Jersey, they are much better than in other places of the country. This article in the Star-Ledger focuses on how New Jersey house prices are doing better than most. A lot of positive comments are given in the article, but the data that backs up the claims are not there. Lets take a look -

... In New Jersey, the housing market continued to fare better than the nation as a whole.

Home prices in the Garden State rose in a number of areas, including the Atlantic City region, where the median sales price increased 4.8 percent in the first quarter, to $277,400, and the Trenton-Ewing market, where the median price rose 1.6 percent, to $288,200. The median is the price where half the homes sold for more and half for less.

These numbers directly contradict the numbers put out by Zillow last week. Either Zillow or the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is putting out bogus data to skew the numbers. Clearly from the following Zillow map, the Atlantic City region fell significantly during the first quarter -

While there were a few areas that had decreases of less than 2%, there does not appear any increases - and more significantly taken as an aggregate the average could not possibly be a rise of 4.8%.

And in stark contrast to the rest of the country, New Jersey was one of only three states where the volume of existing home sales actually rose in the first quarter compared with a year earlier.

... However, in New Jersey, the sales volume rose 4 percent. The other two states that posted increases in home sales for the quarter were Alaska and Illinois.

This is another data set that would be interesting to evaluate.

... In New Jersey, existing home prices in the Newark-Union area, which includes Essex, Hunterdon, Morris, Sussex and Union counties, fell 3.4 percent, to $409,300. In the New York-northern New Jersey area, the median price fell 3.9 percent, to $445,400. And in the Edison area, which includes Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean and Somerset counties, the median home price fell 0.6 percent, to $361,200.

But even in those parts of the state where prices fell, the declines were modest compared with most of the rest of the country.

Unfortunately information is not provided for Bergen, Hudson and Passaic counties. These highly populated areas would have to have significant increases to offset the declines in Essex, Morris, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Somerset, Sussex and Union Counties. Ten out of 21 counties showing losses, but overall the state is prices rose? Interesting!