Monday, August 25, 2008

Opposite Directions?

The headlines are making the current housing situation seem like mixed news. Just take a look at this article from CNN Money titled Existing home sales rise, but prices still sinking. It sounds like there is a rebound - home sales rise. But the rebound is really a thud - home sales really fell by 13.2% in year-over-year stats. Lets take a look at the article -

Sales of existing homes rose more than expected in July, but prices continued to fall and inventory increased. That's according to the latest reading on the battered housing market by an industry trade group released Monday.

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales by homeowners in July increased to an annual pace of 5 million, up from the revised June reading of 4.85 million.

That's better than the annual pace of 4.9 million that economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected, and it's the highest pace since February. Still, July sales were down 13.2% from a year earlier.

...
Even as sales picked, up, the excess supply of homes on the market still rose 3.9% in July to a record high of 4.67 million. Realtors estimated that represents an 11.2 month supply.

That is up from the 11.1-month supply in June, though NAR said the rise in inventories was due to a sharp jump in the number of condominiums on the market. Inventory of single family homes declined slightly, falling to a 10.6 month supply from 11 months in June.

It sounds like more bad news topped of with worse news. Home prices down. Home sales down. The only increases are from the number of houses on the market.

The spinners are trying to make it look like this is the turning point. But we still have the Option ARMS fallout to contend with. We will not reach any turning point until after Option ARM issues unfold.

2 comments:

the bruiser said...

Sales way down year-over-year, but the headlines all read "Sales up in July" reporting on the month-over-month numbers. What will they do during the autumn & winter when sales drop off MOM, while still dropping YOY? Not report at all? Report on the projections?

Anonymous said...

NNJ house prices are going to catch up with collapsing house prices nationally as job losses mount in the area due to finance and pharmaceutical layoffs.

Do not believe any rewhore hopuse prices in NNJ are really going to tumble.

Houses are simply unaffordable for the avg family to buy and keep. Prices will tank to affordable levels.