Friday, April 10, 2009

NJ Housing Recovery 2012

So we still have a long way to go before we recovery. And in this case recovery just means for supply to meet demand - not for prices to return to peak. That is not projected to happen for years and years. In this USA Today article titled Open house, anyone? 1 in 9 homes sit empty the numbers are startling. Let's take a look -

From Maine to Hawaii, millions of new McMansions, post-World War II bungalows, modern downtown lofts, exurban town homes and inner-city row houses sit empty. This unprecedented glut of vacant homes — one in nine homes across the USA, according to the Census Bureau — will change the real estate landscape for years.


More than half of foreclosures last year were filed in just 35 counties across 12 states.

After analyzing government housing data and estimates and projections by Woods & Poole Economics, an independent economic forecaster, Nelson predicts that housing markets in the West and South — regions hardest hit by foreclosures — will start to bounce back later this year and the first half of 2010. The Northeast and Midwest will have the slowest comeback — possibly beyond 2012, he says.

Nelson adds a cautionary note: "Keep in mind that 'recovery' does not mean 'happy days are here again' " but "that there is sufficient pent-up demand for new housing as to warrant new construction."

Prices won't bounce back much, at least initially. When the recovery begins, homes will be selling at the lowest prices this decade, Nelson says.

The interesting thing with the article projections (and it accompanying map) is that the areas that have been absolutely devastated will be among the first to bounce back - Arizona and California. Unfortunately for Michigan - they are not projected until 2012 or after - we wonder if there will be some areas that will never rebound.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

when prices get down to afforable prices I will buy a house, but for now it is time to wait it out and watch the panic continue as these hiomewoners with big dreams fade away to reality. I am niot going to do the saviongs for these homeonwers. Fair prices are still a ways away in NJ.